a fair and balanced birdthing (raaven) wrote,
a fair and balanced birdthing

Here's an excellent, concise summary of some current issues in the OH
Irregularities story.


Ellen Connally, an African-American supreme court candidate running
an underfunded race won a greater percentage of votes in her race
than John Kerry did in his in many Ohio counties. Kerry, as the
presidential candidate should have a higher percentage than Connally
because most voters have the priority of casting a vote for
president. Connally ran better than Kerry in areas where she wasn't
known and did not campaign!

There were 15 Ohio counties where Connally's margin was 5,000 votes
or more better than Kerry's unofficial results: Auglaize, Butler,
Clermont, Darke, Delaware, Greene, Hamilton, Hancock, Licking,
Mercer, Miami, Putnam, Shelby, Stark, and Warren. All 15 counties use
voting systems by ES&S (10 counties) or by Triad (5 counties). Both
companies have ties with the Republican party.

In the 15 counties in which the Connally margin is 5,000 better than
Kerry's, Connally's margin exceeded Kerry's by 190,437 votes.

Primary reference: Kerry Supports Ohio Vote Investigation, Jackson says
by Steven Rosenfeld, November 28, 2004.



Together Triad Governmental Systems, Inc. and Election Systems &
Software (ES&S) count the votes in 80 out of the 88 counties in Ohio.
Triad provides punch card machines and the computer program that
tallies the punch-card ballots in the centralized counting systems
used in 41 counties in Ohio. ES&S provides punch card, optical scan,
and touchscreen machines to the most populous counties in Ohio.

A comparison of votes for Kerry (compared to Gore) indicates that in
the 28 counties using punch card systems not manufactured by Triad,
Kerry won 62,406 more votes than expected; in the 7 counties using
electronic voting Kerry won 38,377 more Kerry votes than expected;
and in the 12 counties using optical scan equipment, Kerry won 323
more votes than expected. Combined, Kerry won 101,506* more votes
than expected in the 47 counties in Ohio that do not use Triad punch
card machines, an average of 2,160 per county. In contrast, in the 41
counties using Triad punch card voting systems John Kerry got 13,369
votes fewer votes than expected, an average of 326 fewer per county.

If the Triad counties had voted (in comparison with 2000) similarly
to all the other counties combined, there would have been a net of
2,486 extra Kerry votes per each of the 41 counties, providing a net
Kerry gain of 101,926 extra net Kerry votes. And with the additional
provisional votes that are up for grabs, that could easily put Kerry
over the top, I would think.

Primary reference:

(*This number may be wrong. If it is, it causes only a slight change
in net Kerry gain from what is reported here).


JOHN KERRY CONCEDED TOO SOON (Voter Suppression/Uncounted Provisionals)
Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D. November 16, 2004

The official Voter Turnout in Ohio is 5,574,476. Adding the 155,428
Provisional Ballots issued turnout was 5,729,904. The Total Votes
Counted were 5,481,804. This leaves 248,100 votes uncounted.

http:/www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php... > // Also
see Lynn Serpes article on the glaring disparity between between the
white and black sections of Cuyahoga County in the numbers of people
who were made to fill out provisional ballots even though they were
registered to vote and were at the correct precinct

Link to Phillips' complete analysis:

Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D. November 23, 2004

The Free Press on Election Day posted a disturbing story, later
confirmed by the Columbus Dispatch: Franklin County Board of
Elections Director Matt Damschroder deliberately withheld voting
machines from predominantly black Democratic wards in Columbus, and
dispersed some of the machines to affluent suburbs in Franklin
County. Damschroder is the former Executive Director of the Franklin
County Republican Party.

Median voter turnout in precincts that voted for Bush was 60.56%, for
Kerry median turnout was 50.78%. Voter turnout was over sixty percent
in 54.5% of precincts that voted for Bush. By contrast, turnout was
over sixty percent in only 16.5% of Kerry precincts.

Were voters not enthusiastic about voting for Kerry or is this
pattern due to uneven distribution of voting machines? Kerry had a
higher turnout where the polling places had enough voting machines.
In the 38 wards in which the number of registered voters per voting
machine was the lowest, 26 went for Kerry and the turnout was 55.85%.
In the 36 wards in which the number of registered voters per voting
machine was the highest (which include Democratic Party
strongholds)all 36 wards went for Kerry and median turnout was only

I conclude that the withholding of voting machines from predominantly
Democratic wards in the City of Columbus cost John Kerry upwards of
17,000 votes.

Link to Phillips' complete analysis:

STEALING VOTES IN CLEVELAND (Vote Tally Inflation; Vote switching)

Phillips' analysis of Cleveland precincts suggests that about 682
votes may have been shifted from the Kerry column to the third-party
candidates (Badnarik and Peroutka) in 11 precincts.

Phillips estimates that 5,186 more votes should be Kerry's tally than
appear in the reported vote totals for precincts with very low voter
turnout. The reported voter turnout in 34 precincts was astonishly
low for a presidential election (as low as 7.10%, many of the 34
precincts had turnouts around 30%). Phillips adopted 50% as an
arbitrary estimate of the true voter turnout for the underreported
precincts, and assumes that the proportions of the vote allotted are
correct for the precincts. Phillips notes that there may be some
correlation between vote suppression efforts (too few machines, etc)
and the low voter turnout in these precincts.

In some cases there appear to have been wholesale shifts of votes
from the Kerry column to the Bush column: By comparing Bush's
performance in 2000 to his performance in 2004 and by assuming that
the proportions of the vote alloted elsewhere in the ward are
correct, Phillips estimates that at least 164 votes cast for Kerry
were switched to Bush.


Link to Phillips' complete analysis:


Vote switching) by Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.

In 28 locations where returns ARE broken down into wards, the sum
total of the votes cast in all the wards is less than the total
reported for the location . For example, in Cleveland totalling the
number of votes for each ward yeilds 165,578 votes, while the total
number of votes reported is 214,902 (a discrepancy of 49,324 votes).
Summing over all 28 locations the discrepancy is 214,193 votes.

In 11 locations where returns are not broken down into wards, the
total votes cast are greater than the number of registered voters .
In University Heights for example, there are 10,072 registered
voters, and it was reported that 11,982 votes were cast - thus there
were 1,910 more votes than registered voters. Summing over the 13
locations there appear to have been 26,416 more votes cast than there
are registered voters.

In two cases, Solon and Strongsville, where returns are broken down
into wards, the discrepancy is limited to a single ward each. Of the
7 wards in Solon, six have more registered voters than votes cast -
only Ward 6 has more votes cast than voters. In Solon Ward 6 there
were 4,300 votes cast while the ward only has 2,292 registered
voters. Of the 4 wards in Strongsville, three wards have more
registered voters than votes cast, only Ward 3 has more votes than
voters). In Strongsville Ward 3 the total votes cast was 12,108 when
the ward has only 7,806 registered voters.

In two cases, Mayfield Heights and Parma Heights, the total votes
cast, while less than the number of registered voters, is so high
87.87% and 95.6%, respectively) as to cause a reasonable observer to
question whether there was such a high turnout.

Link to Phillips' complete analysis:


HACKING THE VOTE IN MIAMI COUNTY (Vote Tally Inflation; Vote switching)
Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.

Over 11,000 fewer votes were cast in 2004 than in 2000.

After 100% of precincts had been reported an additional 18,975
appeared in the final total later on election night. The proportion
of votes to each candidate was the same before (Bush 65.80%) and
after the 18,975 additional votes (Bush 65.77%).

Exceptionally high voter turnout? Once absentee votes were added to
the totals 51,777 votes were counted for president. That is 20.86%
higher than the 2000 vote total (even though population has grown by
only 1.38% and the number of registered voters increased by 8.09%).
For example, voter turnout in Concord South West was 98.55%.

Link to Phillips' complete analysis:
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